Source: CNBC

What propelled the surge?

The rally was driven by several macroeconomic factors. The U.S. federal government shutdown halted the release of economic data from agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, creating uncertainty. At the same time, Federal Reserve communications have signaled a likely shift toward interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, lowering real yields and pressuring the U.S. dollar. Combined with heightened geopolitical risks, these developments strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Central Banks and Investors Amplify the Trend

According to the World Gold Council, which compiles data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and official reserve disclosures, central banks increased their gold holdings for the eleventh consecutive month in September. China’s People’s Bank was a significant buyer once again. On the investor side, CME Group futures open interest data and ETF flows compiled by Bloomberg from fund filings show increased speculative and institutional participation, reinforcing upward momentum.

Volatility and Corrections Still Loom

CME intraday data showed some profit-taking in European trading hours following the breakout, with prices temporarily easing from the highs. Analysts note that corrections are typical after such significant psychological milestones. Any reversal in Federal Reserve policy, stronger-than-expected economic data from agencies like the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or renewed risk appetite in equity markets could trigger short-term pullbacks.

Revised Forecasts Point Higher

According to Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, released in an October client note, the bank raised its 2026 year-end price target for gold to 4,900 dollars per ounce, citing sustained central bank demand and persistent ETF inflows. Other major banks have also revised their targets upward in similar research reports.

Conclusion

Gold’s breach of four thousand dollars, confirmed by COMEX futures and spot benchmarks, reflects a broad shift in risk perception rather than a single headline shock. According to Reuters, that shift is rooted in policy expectations, currency dynamics and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. For investors who view gold as a strategic hedge, the new level is a prompt to reassess allocations with a cool head, using the December 2025 COMEX contract and spot prices as the clearest reference points while letting risk management, not euphoria, set the tempo.

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.