Keurig Dr Pepper is offering JDE Peet’s shareholders 31.85 EUR per share and intends to pay for the entire deal in cash. According to the companies, the transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026. JDE Peet’s board has fully endorsed the offer and unanimously recommended that shareholders accept it. Reuters also reported that investors controlling 69% of the shares have committed to the offer through irrevocable undertakings.

The market read this combination of price and support as a sign of a high probability of success. At the time the details were published, JDE Peet’s shares traded around 31.92 EUR and, according to LSEG data, that implied a market capitalization of approximately 15.6 billion EUR, or roughly 18.15 billion USD, Reuters reported. The story also began in August 2025, when the transaction was announced, and JDE Peet’s shares jumped by about 17% at that time.*

JDE Peet’s NV stock performance over the last 5 years. (Source: tradingview.com)

Record coffee prices are pushing the entire sector toward major decisions

The catalyst is not only a strategy around brands and portfolio, but also the simple mathematics of raw material costs. Reuters describes how global coffee prices reached record levels due to drought in key growing regions in Brazil and Vietnam, as well as volatility after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed import tariffs on most trading partners. When coffee is expensive and supplies are uncertain, large groups naturally seek stronger bargaining power, more stable contracts, and more efficient logistics from farm to shelf.

Figures from recent weeks also show why input costs have become a central topic for the entire consumer sector. Reuters reported in December that robusta futures traded around 4,370 USD per metric ton and arabica reached about 3.7254 USD per pound. The shock reaches retail more slowly, but it is visible. In other Reuters reporting, consumer coffee prices in the United States were up 18.8% through November 2025, and the market also assumes that cost pass-through typically comes with a lag of about nine months because of roasting, inventories, and price negotiations.

Financing and the corporate split are set to become the second story of this deal

Large consumer acquisitions today face two hard questions. The cost of debt and a credible plan for what happens after integration. Keurig Dr Pepper tried to address these issues before the final offer. The caution showed up in the stock. U.S.-listed KDP shares were down about 7% on August 25, 2025, when the deal was unveiled, according to Reuters. In late October, Reuters reported the shares had fallen about 23% since the deal announcement, before jumping about 7% on the day the company raised its sales forecast and disclosed the 7 billion USD private equity funding that was meant to ease leverage concerns. The company stated in its October announcement that, after updating the financing, it expects net leverage of approximately 4.6 times upon completion of the acquisition. Fitch Ratings also noted that the deal includes approximately 4.6 billion USD of assumed debt.

The second part of the story is Keurig Dr Pepper’s planned split into two separate publicly traded companies after the acquisition closes. According to the company’s announcement, one entity would be a standalone beverage company built around its North American soft drinks portfolio, and the other would be a standalone global coffee company positioned as a pure play with scale across brands and distribution. The logic also fits the structure of the offer, because the transaction is not only about buying JDE Peet’s, but about resetting the entire group so that coffee and soft drinks can be managed separately, with distinct priorities and capital policies.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.’s stock performance over the last 5 years. (Source: tradingview.com)

Conclusion

Keurig Dr Pepper’s 18 billion USD offer for JDE Peet’s, priced at 31.85 EUR per share and backed by shareholder undertakings covering 69%, moves the deal into a category that is no longer treated as a routine tie-up between two companies.* At a time when robusta and arabica remain elevated, and U.S. consumer coffee prices were rising at a double-digit pace, it is a move that combines consolidation, supply chain pressure, and a reshaping of a large publicly traded group through a planned split into two companies. The coming weeks will therefore be about more than whether the deal closes in the second quarter of 2026. They will also be about what the new shape of a coffee giant will look like as it aims to take on the biggest players in the category.

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.